We dedicated remainers should not despair that Brexit will be the permanent condition of the UK in Europe. I am confident we will not be out of the EU for long and that in future Brexit will be seen as a temporary aberration rather than the firmly expressed, unshakeable will of the people forever and ever.
What is it that makes me so confident? The demographics. Something that doesn't always receive the attention it should is the way the Brexit result was skewed by older voters being predominantly in favour of leaving the EU. The over 65s were far more likely to vote leave, actually by around 64% to 36%. This is almost exactly mirrored by the 18-25 age group, which was more inclined to vote remain by about 71% to 29% (figures from a post referendum survey of 5000 voters by YouGov)
Each year about 600,000 people (2015 figures) pass away in the UK. The great majority are obviously in the 65 and over age group. At the same time another 600,000 must turn 18 and join the 18-25 cohorts. The total electorate (those eligible to vote is about 46,470,000) is therefore changing annually by about 1.3%.
The referendum turnout was 72% of those eligible and this was I understand pretty uniform throughout different age groups in spite of some initial reporting to the contrary. So around 433,000 of the 600,000 could be expected to be active voters. Assuming for a moment (more on this later) that each voter in the referendum holds steadfastly to the position they held on June 23rd last year, and those newly enfranchised younger voters are pro-remain in the same proportion as the other 18-25 year olds, then over time there will eventually be a majority to remain in or rejoin the EU.
How long will it take? Well, we can work it out. Each year, the number of remain voters increases by 151,000 (71% of the 433,000 joining the electorate minus 36% of the same number leaving it) while the number of leave voters decreases by 151,000 (277,000 less 126,000). This is equivalent to 151,000 people swapping sides and hence reducing leave’s advantage by 302,000 each year. The difference between leave and remain was about 1,270,000 and it is easy to see that in four years or so there will be a balance and after that an increasing number of pro EU votes in any future referendum.
To return to my assumption that voters will vote as they did before. Some will consider this heroic and perhaps it is. However, surveys done so far show no great shift in public opinion and I think this demonstrates voters are generally holding fast to their previously held views or that any regret at voting leave is balanced by regretful remainers. Hence, any movement is more likely to come from the changing number of those holding fixed opinions in different age groups rather than those switching their opinion, although a wider change in public attitudes cannot be ruled out.
As Article 50 is triggered and negotiations get under way the scale of the difficulties and the cost and sheer complexity of untangling ourselves from all of the EU institutions becomes ever clearer there will inevitably be people having second thoughts. If the economy begins to suffer, with inflation impacting consumer spending and unemployment rising as companies cut back on investment or pull out of the UK altogether, it would not be a surprise if some leavers at the margin, those who had flimsy reasons anyway, begin to realise the folly of it all while remainer’s reservations are reinforced.
And after Brexit (for I am convinced we must exit the EU if only to show the leavers why they were wrong) it will finally become clear that our problems are just that - OUR problems. Not the EU's problems or problems caused by the EU but all home-grown. We will have returned control to those politicians who are currently responsible for our roads, railways, health and social services and what do they have in common? They are all are pathetically inferior to the equivalent services in France, Germany, Holland, Belgium and other EU states. So, after a few years we will be looking enviously across the channel and wondering why we left.
In the meantime, we remainers must point the finger of blame at those who misled us or lied to us or recklessly cheered Brexit on not knowing where it would take us.
Finally, I should say I am neither a statistician nor a mathematician and my assumptions may be well wide of the mark but until someone explains where I’m wrong, I’ll continue to believe it’s only a matter of time.
